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Thread: Obama vs. Romney

  1. #31
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    OBAMA EVs - CHANCE OF WINNING (DATE)
    321.2 - 87.1% (10/4)
    ...
    283.1 - 61.1% (10/12)
    285.4 - 62.9% (10/13)
    285.6 - 63.3% (10/14)
    289.2 - 66.0% (10/15)
    287.0 - 64.8% (10/16)
    291.6 - 65.7% (10/17)
    287.2 - 70.4% (10/18)
    287.8 - 67.9% (10/19)
    288.6 - 67.9% (10/20)
    288.0 - 67.6% (10/21)
    290.8 - 70.3% (10/22)
    288.3 - 68.1% (10/23)
    290.8 - 71.0% (10/24)
    294.1 - 73.1% (10/25)
    295.4 - 74.4% (10/26)
    295.5 - 73.6% (10/27)
    296.6 - 74.6% (10/28)
    294.6 - 72.9% (10/29)
    299.0 - 77.4% (10/30)
    300.4 - 79.0% (10/31)
    303.4 - 80.9% (11/01)
    305.3 - 83.7% (11/02)
    306.9 - 85.1% (11/03)

    KEY SWING STATES
    CO
    50.5% R (10/23)
    52.5% O (10/24)
    56.8% O (10/25)
    57.3% O (10/26)
    57.7% O (10/27)
    58.2% O (10/28)
    55.4% O (10/29)
    60.7% O (10/30)
    62.6% O (10/31)
    64.6% O (11/01)
    67.9% O (11/02)
    68.1% O (11/03)


    FL
    67.6% R (10/24)
    64.7% R (10/25)
    62.9% R (10/26)
    63.8% R (10/27)
    62.5% R (10/28)
    64.7% R (10/29)
    59.3% R (10/30)
    58.8% R (10/31)
    55.1% R (11/01)
    54.8% R (11/02)
    53.8% R (11/03)


    IA
    64.4% O (10/23)
    66.5% O (10/24)
    68.3% O (10/25)
    72.1% O (10/26)
    72.3% O (10/27)
    72.7% O (10/28)
    70.9% O (10/29)
    74.4% O (10/30)
    78.4% O (10/31)
    78.8% O (11/01)
    80.7% O (11/02)
    83.1% O (11/03)


    NH
    77.8% O (11/01)
    78.6% O (11/02)
    79.4% O (11/03)


    OH
    70.4% O (10/23)
    73.4% O (10/24)
    74.8% O (10/25)
    76.3% O (10/26)
    73.5% O (10/27)
    74.9% O (10/28)
    73.3% O (10/29)
    77.6% O (10/30)
    79.9% O (10/31)
    80.5% O (11/01)
    83.8% O (11/02)
    85.0% O (11/03)


    VA
    51.0% O (10/23)
    52.9% O (10/24)
    54.3% O (10/25)
    54.1% O (10/26)
    59.8% O (10/27)
    59.9% O (10/28)
    57.8% O (10/29)
    61.8% O (10/30)
    61.3% O (10/31)
    66.4% O (11/01)
    67.0% O (11/02)
    71.0% O (11/03)
    Last edited by Jeff Dieffenbach; 11-04-2012 at 07:42 AM. Reason: Updated through 11/03

  2. #32
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    As Ohio goes, so go Obama's chances. The chart below compares Obama's probability of winning in OH vs. his probability overall.

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  3. #33
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    Florida changes hands (11/05).

    OBAMA EVs - CHANCE OF WINNING (DATE)
    321.2 - 87.1% (10/04)
    ...
    283.1 - 61.1% (10/12)
    285.4 - 62.9% (10/13)
    285.6 - 63.3% (10/14)
    289.2 - 66.0% (10/15)
    287.0 - 64.8% (10/16)
    291.6 - 65.7% (10/17)
    287.2 - 70.4% (10/18)
    287.8 - 67.9% (10/19)
    288.6 - 67.9% (10/20)
    288.0 - 67.6% (10/21)
    290.8 - 70.3% (10/22)
    288.3 - 68.1% (10/23)
    290.8 - 71.0% (10/24)
    294.1 - 73.1% (10/25)
    295.4 - 74.4% (10/26)
    295.5 - 73.6% (10/27)
    296.6 - 74.6% (10/28)
    294.6 - 72.9% (10/29)
    299.0 - 77.4% (10/30)
    300.4 - 79.0% (10/31)
    303.4 - 80.9% (11/01)
    305.3 - 83.7% (11/02)
    306.9 - 85.1% (11/03)
    307.2 - 86.3% (11/04)
    314.4 - 91.4% (11/05)

    KEY SWING STATES
    CO
    50.5% R (10/23)
    52.5% O (10/24)
    56.8% O (10/25)
    57.3% O (10/26)
    57.7% O (10/27)
    58.2% O (10/28)
    55.4% O (10/29)
    60.7% O (10/30)
    62.6% O (10/31)
    64.6% O (11/01)
    67.9% O (11/02)
    68.1% O (11/03)
    69.7% O (11/04)
    80.3% O (11/05)


    FL
    67.6% R (10/24)
    64.7% R (10/25)
    62.9% R (10/26)
    63.8% R (10/27)
    62.5% R (10/28)
    64.7% R (10/29)
    59.3% R (10/30)
    58.8% R (10/31)
    55.1% R (11/01)
    54.8% R (11/02)
    53.8% R (11/03)
    55.5% R (11/04)

    52.5% O (11/05)

    IA
    64.4% O (10/23)
    66.5% O (10/24)
    68.3% O (10/25)
    72.1% O (10/26)
    72.3% O (10/27)
    72.7% O (10/28)
    70.9% O (10/29)
    74.4% O (10/30)
    78.4% O (10/31)
    78.8% O (11/01)
    80.7% O (11/02)
    83.1% O (11/03)
    81.2% O (11/04)
    85.0% O (11/05)


    NC
    77.2% R (11/04)
    72.4% R (11/05)


    NH
    77.8% O (11/01)
    78.6% O (11/02)
    79.4% O (11/03)
    80.2% O (11/04)
    84.9% O (11/05)


    OH
    70.4% O (10/23)
    73.4% O (10/24)
    74.8% O (10/25)
    76.3% O (10/26)
    73.5% O (10/27)
    74.9% O (10/28)
    73.3% O (10/29)
    77.6% O (10/30)
    79.9% O (10/31)
    80.5% O (11/01)
    83.8% O (11/02)
    85.0% O (11/03)
    86.8% O (11/04)
    91.2% O (11/05)


    VA
    51.0% O (10/23)
    52.9% O (10/24)
    54.3% O (10/25)
    54.1% O (10/26)
    59.8% O (10/27)
    59.9% O (10/28)
    57.8% O (10/29)
    61.8% O (10/30)
    61.3% O (10/31)
    66.4% O (11/01)
    67.0% O (11/02)
    71.0% O (11/03)
    72.6% O (11/04)
    80.3% O (11/05)
    Last edited by Jeff Dieffenbach; 11-05-2012 at 10:59 PM. Reason: Updated through 11/05

  4. #34
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    538 projects a 0.3% chance of an Electoral College tie. To Nick's early point, in that event, the House selects the President on a one-vote-per-state basis. Almost certainly, in this scenario, the White House would go to Romney.

    As Eliot Spitzer points out, however, the story doesn't end there. In the event of an Electoral Vote tie, the Senate selects the Vice President. Given the likely Democrat majority in that chamber, Joe Biden might well end up being Romney's Vice President.

  5. #35
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    RealClearPolitics is described by left-leaning salon.com as "the closest thing to a universally trusted source in the charged pre-election climate." RCP's graphics and presentation are a bit different from 538, and worth looking at. Overall, 538 and RCP are in fairly close agreement.

  6. #36
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    It will be interesting to see how the different poll aggregation sites compare. For the most part, 538, RCP, and Rasmussen agree. In a few cases, though, Rasmussen diverges (to the right) from 538 and RCP.

    Colorado
    538 and RCP favor Obama
    Rasmussen favors Romney

    Florida
    538 and RCP favor Obama
    Rasmussen favors Romney

    New Hampshire
    538 and RCP favor Obama
    Rasmussen favors Romney

    Ohio
    538 and RCP favor Obama
    Rasmussen calls it a draw

    Virginia
    538 and RCP favor Obama
    Rasmussen favors Romney

    Wisconsin
    538 and RCP favor Obama
    Rasmussen calls it a draw

  7. #37
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    Busy morning, but here's a quick post comparing how Five Thirty Eight (538), Real Clear Politics (RCP), and Rasmussen projections as of Monday evening fared. Note that at this point, results are in from 49 states plus the District of Columbia, with Florida leaning Obama by 46,000 votes with 97% in. I'll count FL for Obama and adjust should that outcome change.

    Five Thirty Eight
    51 of 51 correct

    Real Clear Politics
    50 of 51 correct (RCP had Romney in FL)

    Rasmussen
    46* of 51 correct (RCP had Romney in CO, FL, IA, NH, and VA)

    *Rasmussen had a tie in OH and WI; I'm counting those two states as correct for Rasmussen, but their "score" might better be characterized as 44-46 correct.

    In sum, Rasmussen projected to the right of the actuals while RCP and 538 projected "neutrally."

  8. #38
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    And here's slate.com's take on how various pundits did projecting the electoral vote outcome. Not clear why RCP and Rasmussen aren't shown.

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...l_results.html

  9. #39
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    I heard (and Wikipedia confirms) that Obama is the first Democratic President since FDR (and perhaps only 1 of 3 ever) to have won 50% of the national vote in 2 or more elections. Of course, there haven't been a ton of Democrats to even win 2+ elections.
    Last edited by Jeff Dieffenbach; 11-08-2012 at 11:11 PM. Reason: URL added

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