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Thread: Class sizes: FY09 vs. FY08

  1. #61
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
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    448

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    The "elsewhere" link provided in Jeff's post gives us projections out to 2012, yet the SC and the Administration has stated on many occasions that they are good at projecting out one year, but beyond that, their results are unreliable.
    If this is true, then how much weight should be placed on these longer term projections? Considering how far off the one year projection was this year, I would say very little.

    As you look at this chart , think about the Dow.
    If the Dow went down 700 points one day, 500 the next and 10 on the third day, would the third day be seen as a continued downward spiral?
    No, it would be cause for celebration.
    Going down 10 points is nothing like going down 700.
    A decline in enrollment of 10 students is nothing like a drop of 50 or more each year for multiple consecutive years as the chart shows we had in the mid- 70s.

    While it's true that technically 10 fewer students is still a decline, it is so small as to be insignificant.

    .
    John Flaherty

    Any views expressed are NOT mine alone.
    Wayland Transparency - Facts Without Spin
    http://www.waylandtransparency.com/

  2. #62
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    46

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Dieffenbach View Post
    From last year (FY08: 1,213 students) to this year (FY09: 1,203), the elementary enrollment decline continued, albeit at 10 students, only slightly. Next year, the decline will most likely accelerate, as we have a relatively large class of 5th graders (227) exiting and being "replaced" by a smaller Kindergarten (this assumption also takes into account "inter-grade" changes, for instance the number exiting Kindergarten and entering first grade). The School Committee should receive the administration's FY10 enrollment projections at its next meeting.
    Thanks Jeff, I'll look for those at the meeting.

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