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Thread: Cheap Gas

  1. #16
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    Jan 2006
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    117

    Default Thanks for agreeing

    I would prefer to let you use my formula so I can point out the errors when you do it.

    By the way, if you modify your formula as I described (getting the gallons of fuel used) and use my numbers it drops the estimated cost from $5,346,000 to $23,760. This highlights the importance or presenting the best possible formula possible.

    I would love to see your thoughts on a better way.

  2. #17
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    Default all kidding aside

    I do not have any of the data that would be required to do the calculation and some of the data (as I previously stated) is not even available.

  3. #18
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
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    Wayland MA 463 Old Conn Path
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    382

    Default Ok fair enough

    When I am able to get some quiet time I will spreadsheet it... but there are some assumptions that will be needed to feed that algorithm like numbers of busses, numbers of trips, average miles, days and mpg ... without that precision the best algorithms can give false answers.

    (As you just wrote, you don't have all the data either... so we either have to get more precision on it or make logical estimations.)

    Instead of using this forum to 'throw darts' and (as you said) point out my errors, I could send you a spreadsheet and iterate until we both agree - or not whatever the case may be.

    I think its way more important to get to a realistic estimation rather than a contest of who is right or wrong... Don't you agree?

  4. #19
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    Jan 2006
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    117

    Default Wait

    Alan,

    I think all of the data is or will be available and any calculations before it is available is premature. I think the risk when you assume is that you make an ... you know the quote.

    A good use of time would be to get the actual fuel cost for 07-08 and the average price per gallon for the fuel for that time frame. Then when the bus routes are released for this coming school year the rest of the numbers should be available. I will send you a spreadsheet.

  5. #20
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    Nov 2005
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    Default

    We budgeted for a 50 percent increase in fuel cost for FY09, up from about $100k actual in FY08. The Algorithm Boys should feel free to run w/ this.

    The ES reconfiguration will represent a small fraction of the actual delta, on the order of 1/4, perhaps (?), taking in to consideration the transportation of HS, MS, and CH students who would have ridden anyway.

    Pure coincidence how close this comes to BT Downs' example number.

  6. #21
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    46

    Default It shouldn't take a math genius to figure this out

    If nothing at all changed (ie no reconfiguration), the bus contract increased this year by 7%.
    Fuel costs have increased by at least (and this is a conservative guess) 50%
    since last year.

  7. #22
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    Jan 2006
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Dieffenbach View Post
    We budgeted for a 50 percent increase in fuel cost for FY09, up from about $100k actual in FY08. The Algorithm Boys should feel free to run w/ this.

    The ES reconfiguration will represent a small fraction of the actual delta, on the order of 1/4, perhaps (?), taking in to consideration the transportation of HS, MS, and CH students who would have ridden anyway.

    Pure coincidence how close this comes to BT Downs' example number.
    Help me out here. A few days ago you said the fuel costs were part of the contract, then acknowledged that as incorrect. Today you point out that there was a 50% increase in fuel costs budgeted. The budget was compiled back in the November to January timeframe, right? FY 08 just ended two weeks ago. How were you able to foresee $100K of spending on fuel for FY 08 back in January when diesel still was selling at ~$3.40/gallon? And you're able to estimate without any hard data that the ES reconfiguration will represent 25% of the cost variance from FY 08 to FY 09? The ES configuration may have follow-on effects on MS and HS buses as well. Let's stick to BT Downs' suggestion that any estimates come from quantifiable data drivers and not from other undesirable places.

  8. #23
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Grasso View Post
    Today you point out that there was a 50% increase in fuel costs budgeted. The budget was compiled back in the November to January timeframe, right? FY 08 just ended two weeks ago. How were you able to foresee $100K of spending on fuel for FY 08 back in January when diesel still was selling at ~$3.40/gallon?
    I don't follow your question. Back in the December-February time frame in 2006-2007 (about a year and a half ago), we projected a $100k fuel expenditure for the recently completed FY2008. We came in just below that total. I presume that we were able to do that because our Business Manager is good at her job.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Grasso View Post
    And you're able to estimate without any hard data that the ES reconfiguration will represent 25% of the cost variance from FY 08 to FY 09?
    I did not estimate this, I hypothesized it. ES transportation costs are on the order of 1/2 of transportation costs. The reconfiguration increase at the ES level *might* be on the order of half of that. Is it 25%? I don't know. But I don't think that it's 5% and I don't think that it's 50%.

  9. #24
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    Apr 2008
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Dieffenbach View Post
    I don't follow your question. Back in the December-February time frame in 2006-2007 (about a year and a half ago), we projected a $100k fuel expenditure for the recently completed FY2008. We came in just below that total. I presume that we were able to do that because our Business Manager is good at her job.

    Jeff,

    Paul's question seems to me to be how did you estimate that the figure of $100,000 for fuel would need to be increased to $150,000 back in November?
    At that time, gas prices were 50% lower.

  10. #25
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    Jan 2006
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    84

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Mary Barber View Post
    Jeff,

    Paul's question seems to me to be how did you estimate that the figure of $100,000 for fuel would need to be increased to $150,000 back in November?
    At that time, gas prices were 50% lower.
    That's correct. Apologies for the clumsy wording of the question. The bus contract was a different budget item from the diesel costs.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mary Barber View Post
    Jeff, Paul's question seems to me to be how did you estimate that the figure of $100,000 for fuel would need to be increased to $150,000 back in November? At that time, gas prices were 50% lower.
    I don't mean to nit-pick, but diesel fuel prices were about 30% lower in January compared to today, based on the numbers you provided.

    I don't know how the 50% increase was arrived at, but do know that our Business Manager is in frequent contact with peer communities and individuals in the fuel supply chain--the increase was probably based in part on this information.

  12. #27
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    Default

    I'm not sure if this data (Energy Information Association) is representative of what Wayland pays for diesel fuel, but it shows the price trend going back to January of 2006.

    These prices are a bit lower than the ones that Mary Barber reported, but the percent change is about the same.

  13. #28
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    Default

    Good news regarding diesel fuel prices, according to the Energy Information Association. New England diesel fuel is down for the second straight week. Not by a lot, but at least the current trend is in the right direction: we're back to prices not seen since the end of May!

  14. #29
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    Diesel fuel price now down almost 10% from its July peak, to about $4.35/gallon (Energy Information Administration). Of course, still quite high relative to prices of the last two years.

  15. #30
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    My last few posts incorrectly cited the national average as the New England average for diesel fuel price. The overall trend is the same, but our price is currently $4.38/gallon (as of 8/25, down from $4.90/gallon in July).

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