Results 1 to 5 of 5

Thread: Alan Reiss retracts Candidates Night statement re:real estate appreciation

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    37

    Default Alan Reiss retracts Candidates Night statement re:real estate appreciation

    April 3rd, 2008

    To the residents of Wayland,

    During the League of Women Voters’ Candidates Night on April 2, 2008, I presented an analysis that indicated that Wayland’s growth of property values over the last 5 years was 11.5%, putting Wayland second to lowest among the “FinCom 15” towns in the survey. FinCom member Chris Riley questioned my data, claiming Wayland was significantly higher at 25%.

    My credibility is very important to me, so I reviewed the data and my sources, and discovered that the March, 2008, Boston Magazine article from which I took the data, based on Banker & Tradesman data from the Warren Group, had been provided to Boston Magazine in the fall of 2007, but recently revised by the Warren Group to exclude “non-arm-length sales” and “foreclosures.” This revision reduced the absolute number of sales, and also increased the effective median price of each town.

    Using the revamped data, Wayland’s median property value became 17.94%, not 11.5%. The discrepancy between 17.94% and Chris Riley’s 25% is in the fact that he used 2002-2007 data, which is 6 years. The March 2008, Boston Magazine article (and my analysis) covered 5 years, 2003-2007. I also thank Chris for pointing this out to me.

    The net effect of this puts Wayland 4th from the top on the “FinCom15” list and therefore, I can no longer make the absolute argument that the series of 4 overrides has had an adverse effect on Wayland’s real estate values. We are closer to the center of the list and not near any of the extremes in 5-year real estate valuations as of 2007.

    However, 4 overrides has certainly had an adverse effect on the ability of many people to live here and I will still be voting against this coming override; not for reasons of self interest, but because we hear every day that people on modest and fixed incomes are having a hard time making ends meet. The residents of Wayland represent a wide range of income. About 1,000 households (1/5th) earn below $50K. It is my hope that we can avoid frequent overrides in the future, have them separate from issues of public safety and aging, and have a community that can accommodate all people of all ages and incomes.

    If you decide to re-elect me as Selectman on April 8th, it will be my goal to work on ways to bring down costs in the town, increase revenue sources, and make the process more democratic, more inclusive and more open to diverse opinion.

    Sincerely,
    Alan J. Reiss

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Wayland MA
    Posts
    1,431

    Default

    For the record, I think that it was the School Committee that developed the list of 15 peer towns (that number including Wayland). That list and its (debatable) rationale is available at the second post here.

    The Finance Committee *may* have adopted the "School Committee 15" at some point in the recent past, having used their own "14" in this presentation (perhaps among others) available on the Town of Wayland web site.

    If members of the Finance Committee or others have a different recollection/understanding, please let me know.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    37

    Default Alan Reiss submits revised charts

    Alan Reiss has recreated his property appreciation charts with corrected data. His new charts are available via the PDF link shown below.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Wayland MA
    Posts
    1,431

    Default

    Thanks for updating. A few observations:

    1. If I understand correctly, "MA median sales price - single family homes" is a tricky metric to compare since it's only looking at what sells, not at the entire inventory. And, using the entire inventory can even be misleading, since it doesn't normalize for new construction and renovations. Using assessed value (from the Department of Revenue) adjusts for the first problem, but not the second. It might be possible to use assessed value coupled with new growth, but that starts to get complex.

    2. The peer group comparison is interesting. It would be great to add the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile statewide for perspective. For instance, had Wayland been at the low end of the peer group, it might still have shown well against the state as a whole.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    726

    Default

    Jeff, I made the same point to Alan about the median sales price potentially being misleading -- it seems odd that the performance of Dover and Sherborn was so very different, for example. It made you wonder whether perhaps Sherborn was perhaps experiencing new growth in the form of knock-downs (which would show up as lower dollar value sales) being replaced with new construction.

    There are a myriad of factors that might be driving the differences. I thought it might be interesting to look at those two towns to help drive thinking on what might cause the variations in behavior. And also, comparisons against other, non-peer towns.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •